NABat Summer Occupancy Analysis 2010-2019

We have made available our first set of results for one of three status variables for North American bats. Through this work we developed an analytical pipeline supported by web-based infrastructure for integrating continental scale bat monitoring data (stationary acoustic, mobile acoustic, and capture records) to estimate summer (May 1–Aug 31) occupancy probabilities and changes in occupancy over time for 12 North American bat species. This serves as one of multiple lines of evidence that inform the status and trends of bat populations. We analyzed data from a total of 12 bat species, 11 of which have tested positive for Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd), a fungal pathogen that causes white-nose syndrome (WNS)—a disease that has led to significant rates of mortality for subterranean hibernating bat species in North America. A twelfth species was also selected because of high rates of mortality at wind energy facilities. Additional species were considered but not selected due to data limitations.

We estimated occupancy probabilities for 2010 through 2019 for three species (Myotis lucifugus, MYLU; Myotis septentrionalis, MYSE; and Perimyotis subflavus, PESU). For an additional nine species, we estimated occupancy probabilities for 2016 through 2019 (Myotis evotis, MYEV; Myotis grisescens, MYGR; Myotis leibii, MYLE; Myotis thysanodes, MYTH; Myotis volans, MYVO; Myotis yumanensis, MYYU; Eptesicus fuscus, EPFU; Lasionycteris noctivagans, LANO; and Lasiurus cinereus, LACI). For each species, we provide range-wide occupancy probability predictions (e.g., predicted summer occupancy distribution maps) each year and provide regional estimates of mean occupancy probability aggregated at a variety of spatial scales (state/province/territory, range-wide). For each species, we also provide trends over time (average annual change rate and total change rate) in mean occupancy probabilities at multiple spatial scales (state/province/territory, range-wide) and when possible, over multiple timescales. The representativeness of sampling data for each species’ status and trend estimates (e.g., state/province/territory) were also evaluated based on the percent of grid cells sampled each year with a goal of understanding the reliability of regional estimates and improving future monitoring efforts.

Results suggest that over the short-term (2016-2019), two (Myotis lucifugus and Perimyotis subflavus) of 12 species have experienced declines in range-wide average occupancy probability with at least 95% certainty. Seven species showed either minor increases or decreases in range-wide average occupancy probability but with less than 95% certainty in both trend indicators. Results over the longer term (eight years and 10 years of sampling) suggest that three hibernating species known to be highly affected by white-nose syndrome (Myotis lucifugus, Myotis septentrionalis, and Perimyotis subflavus) have experienced marked declines in range-wide average occupancy probabilities, with severity varying by species and region. Finally, the re